ศูนย์นวัตกรรมเทคโนโลยีหลังการเก็บเกี่ยว

Rice yield forecasting in Rangpur district: an early warning.

Mohammad Abdul Hamid;

Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics Year: 1993 Vol: 16 Issue: 1 Pages: 37-47 Ref: 18 ref.

1993

บทคัดย่อ

This study aims to: forecast the yield of Aman crops, in particular rice, by varieties, using climatic and non-climatic variables at different stages of crop production; determine the relationship between the forecast yield and the actual yield of Aman crops at different stages; determine the feasibility of formulating models to relate yield variations to climatic and non-climatic variables during the growing seasons; and provide information to higher authorities for policy formulation regarding the crop supply situation of the district to allow for appropriate action to be taken so that food grains are available when and where needed. The study was undertaken in Rangpur district of Bangladesh from 1968-88. The results indicate that the government should use the models which give accurate predictions of productivity. In the surplus area, the authority could procure food grains to maintain price stability and plan its distribution patterns during the pre-harvest period in areas where low producti

vity was anticipated. Marginal and poor farmers tend to have a reserve of food grains for a couple of months postharvest, and it is essential that they receive food grains on time. Recommendations were made for the inclusion of more non-weather variables in the models and for use of the models in other districts for forecasting.