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Gauging impacts of economic change on grain trade.

Amstutz, D. G.;

Rural Cooperatives Year: 1996 Vol: 63 Issue: 6 Pages: 11-12

1996

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Gauging impacts of economic change on grain trade.

In 1996 the bulk grain and oilseed sectors provided the US economy with most of the economic benefits of a positive agricultural trade balance. The place of the USA in the world grain economy is considered. Supply of coarse grain is expected to be reduced in 1995/1996 with a carry over of only 1 months requirements (3 years ago this stood at 2 months); a carry over of 2 months is predicted for wheat (compared to 3 months 3 years ago). Current pricing trends have confirmed the inelasticity of demand in the grains and oilseed sectors. Longer term prospects are also considered. The 2 factors, population and disposable income, affecting grain demand are discussed. It is predicted that world trade in wheat will reach 120 million ton by the millennium; over 50% of the exports being destined for Asia. Effects of this on US exports are examined. It is concluded that to remain competitive, the USA must cease engaging in unilateral trade embargoes and its existing postharvest infrastructure must be mainta

ined.