บทคัดย่องานวิจัย

หมวดหมู่ : ฐานข้อมูลงานวิจัย

Prediction of future situation of rice farming in the Muda area, Malaysia.

Yasunobu, K.; Foong YeeWong; Monma, T.;

JIRCAS Journal Year: 1999 Issue: No. 7 Pages: 29-43 Ref: 6 ref.

1999

บทคัดย่อ

Prediction of future situation of rice farming in the Muda area, Malaysia.

The study analyses the farming conditions in terms of farming population and farmland in the largest paddy farming area of Malaysia. Based on the farmers' answers to a questionnaire (88 items), simulations were made for a period of 20 years and the outcome represents the situation in the year 2013. The data were collected during 1994 from all the residents (42 rice farmers) of a village in the Muda Irrigation Scheme area. Model building, which is an essential part of this kind of simulation, was carried out based on both survey data and previous related studies. The results of the simulation showed that if other conditions remained the same, the number of family members and people engaged in farm labour at the survey site would decrease by 14% and 38%, respectively. It is forecast that the size of owned land would decrease, while that of rent-in and rent-out land would moderately increase. It is also estimated that the size of operational land would slightly increase. The total population engage

d in agriculture (rice farming) will decrease drastically in the year 2013. With the decreasing farming population, farm size will increase in the future. The simulation results also suggest that small-scale farmers are likely to rent-in land to increase their operation scale. Probability of the emergence of large-scale farmers will be high if the heads of farm households are young and wish to rent-in land to continue farming. However, if they decide to work in the nearby city, it is likely that they will not enlarge the size of operational land or will carry out farming on a part-time basis.