บทคัดย่องานวิจัย

หมวดหมู่ : ฐานข้อมูลงานวิจัย

Modelling variability of quality kinetics during postharvest storage: a generic approach.

M.L.A.T.M., Nicolai, B.M.

5th International Postharvest Symposium . Volume of Abstract . Verona, Italy 6-11 June 2004, p.95

2004

บทคัดย่อ

Modelling variability of quality kinetics during postharvest storage: a generic approach. Present methodologies for modellings fruit quality kinetics are extended to account for the large variability, which is observed during postharvest storage.The variability in fruit quality attributes at a given time point during storage mainly originates from biological variability, and variability in the physiological stage of fruit, ambient conditions and , eventually, the measurement techniques applied.

Instead of modeling the full chain of underlying biochemical and physiological processes, typically deterministic models of minimum complexity are developed to describe the basis dynamics of fruit quality changes by means of a limited number of – measurable – state variables and parameters.In order to account for natural and induced variability, the evolution of fruit quality is represented by means of a dynamic system in which the initial conditions and the model parameters are specified as random variables together with their probability density functions.A generic approach from stochastic systems theory is introduced to predict the propagation of the probability density functions of fruit quality attributes, which requires the numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equations, i.e., the governing equation for stochastic evolution of a probability density function.As an illustrative example to demonstrate the main features of the developed concepts and stochastic methodology, the firmness evolution during storage of three tomato cultivars (Quest, Style, and Tradiro) was followed, and the propagation of its probability density function was predicted.

This research shows that probability and uncertainty analysis of fruit quality evolution during storage is a novel practical tool with great potential to identify critical points during storage and to help the decision making for product commercialization.Furthermore, a novel approach is developed to express and visualize the dynamics of quality evolution in terms of the probability that particular events during storage are likely to happen.